It’s great to end the first half of 2024 with its biggest hit still churning out unexpectedly huge grosses as “Inside Out 2” (Disney) is doing. With over $388 million in U.S.
/Canada ticket sales after 12 days, it could reach as high as $600 million — more than double pre-release high-end projections. It’s way too soon to know whether this is a portent of how other highly anticipated titles from the rest of the year will do, or if it’s sui generis. The reality is that for the year to end up as not the total disaster it has been but in fact improve, “ Inside Out 2 ” can’t be an exception.
Why? Because a combination of the shortfall so far, historical precedent, and a still somewhat (but less so) depleted release schedule all suggests there’s a limit to short-term improvement. Odds are against 2024 recovering to the extent that it will be “only” 12 percent less than 2023 ($8 billion compared to $9.1 billion).
Studio and other estimates are improving, but the range expected now falls between $7.5 billion and $7.9 billion.
First there’s the math. Through June 30 (July 3 actually starts the second half), total box office will sit at around $3.6 billion.
That would be about 19 percent below first half 2023, much improved from earlier, but if sustained would end up at $7.2 billion (down from $9.1 billion, the figure provided by Comscore which has access to more than just distributor reported grosses).
Historically, each half of the year has been roughly equa.
