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HIGHLIGHTS Record rice production of 135-138 million mt forecast in India for 2024-25 Robust output to pressure domestic prices and spur reversal of export curbs Return of La Nina rainfall boosts crop prospects after 3 years of drought India’s rice production is forecast to reach record volumes of 135.5 million-138 million mt in 2024-25 crop year (July-June), as chances for La Nina are expected to gradually rise by August-September, market sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights. A robust 2024-25 harvest by the world’s top exporter is expected to have widespread implications on global rice market, including price cuts and possibly reversal of restrictive trade policies, sources reckoned.

Commodity Insights expects 135.5 million mt of rice output in 2024-25, which if realized, equals India’s record harvest of 2022-23. However, the US Department of Agriculture has adopted a more bullish stance and projects an all-time high volume of 138 million mt.



These lofty projections are based on expectations of sufficient rainfall in 2024 by the India Meteorological Department. The IMD has forecast above-average rainfall for India during the 2024 monsoon season (June-September), which is going to be extremely beneficial for the kharif crops, including rice, a Vizag-based trader said. The South Asian nation produces rice in kharif and rabi seasons.

While kharif rice, which comprises 70% of country’s output, is typically harvested in November, rabi is generally planted in Novembe.

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