This article appears as part of the Unspun: Scottish Politics newsletter. It’s been a strange, almost dissociative, week for the SNP. The party of government appears to be blithely wandering around in some fantasy-land, imagining all is well with its fortunes, whilst completely disregarding how matters are tanking left, right and centre, especially in the polls.
First let’s look at those polls. Three massive surveys were published within an hour of each this week, spelling doom, doom and more doom for John Swinney. A YouGov poll put Labour as the largest party in Scotland by a margin of eight seats.
Labour would have 28 MPs, to the SNP’s 20. The Tories are on five and LibDems four. Alba’s two seats – held by defectors from the SNP – will go to Labour.
A More in Common poll also predicted the end of SNP dominance, with the party reduced to 18 seats, and Labour once more becoming the biggest party with 33 MPs. Even worse for the SNP was a Savanta poll which put the nationalists on just eight seats. While clearly, polls can be wrong, none of this looks good for the SNP.
Indeed, the party appears to be retreating north in Scotland, with possible wipeout in much of the Central Belt. Read more: Unspun | Neil Mackay: Why rise of Farage’s Reform Party will be making of the Yes movement There’s a distinct chance now that the SNP will completely lose Glasgow, Edinburgh and Dundee. Glasgow and Dundee would be particularly harsh blows as both voted a majority for Yes at t.
