The contours of this election were set early on in the campaign: the collapse of the Conservatives; the rise of Reform, catalysed by Nigel Farage ’s surprise return to front-line politics; and of course the inexorable march to No 10 by the Labour Party. But in which constituencies are we going to see the closest fights? How many high-profile politicians might lose their seats? Where best encapsulates the themes of this election? And which seats will reveal the state of the nation as 14 years of Conservative government almost certainly comes to a close? Here are our picks for the 12 constituencies across the UK to watch out for as election night unfolds. One of the big questions of the night: will Penny Mordaunt lose her seat? Some are adamant she is the future of British conservatism, and she was the alternative option for leader against Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak in 2022.
But she was unsuccessful both times. And she is in danger now. Britain Predicts tips her Portsmouth North seat to be a Labour gain by a wafer-thin margin.
Everything is up in the air here. Conservative councillors were wiped out here in the recent local elections. But the anti-Tory votes went to local independents, not so much to the Liberal Democrats and Labour.
If the anti-Conservative vote splits in the same way, then Mordaunt might hold on. The local Labour Party should also be concerned: if it can’t convert a high-profile fight like this into a win, the party may face some serious scrutiny. This sea.
