BING-JHEN HONG With Walmart ( WMT , WMT:CA ) reporting this past week, it’s thought the Q1 ’24 earnings season has officially ended, but with Nvidia ( NVDA , NVDA:CA ) scheduled to report their quarterly results on 5/22/24 after the closing bell, earnings season has likely been extended for another week. Nvidia is the new stock market darling. S&P 500 data: The forward 4-quarter estimate slipped a little this week to $252.
93 from last week’s $252.99, and vs the $243.98 that started the year.
The P/E on the forward estimate is now 21x versus the 20.6 x last week, and the 21x P/E that started the year. The S&P 500 “earnings yield” is 4.
77%, vs the 4.85% last week, and the 5.19% that started 2024.
The S&P 500 EPS “upside surprise” was +8.2% this week. Let’s have a look at how the upside surprise for S&P 500 earnings has progressed over the last 5 weeks: Progression of S&P 500’s EPS upside surprise: 5/17: +8.
2% 5/10: +8.3% 5/3: +8.4% 4/26: +9.
5% 4/19: +10.1% S&P 500 EPS upside surprise over last 4 quarters : Q1 ’24: +8.2% Q4 ’23: +6.
3% Q3 ’23: +7.2% Q2 ’23: +7.9% Those are healthy numbers, both the last 5 weeks and the last 4 quarters.
StyleBox Update Click on the above spreadsheet, to see relative and absolute performance of the “styles” from large-cap growth to small-cap value. The numbers that jump out to me are the “3-yr” annualized returns at the bottom of the spreadsheet. Those 3-year annual returns still appear rather modest in what mostly.
