While much of our news and attention is focused on November’s presidential election matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the fight to control the United States Senate is just as important, and figures to be just as close. Today, the race to control the Senate is virtually tied between Democrats and Republicans, 45% to 45%, according to Real Clear Politics’ polling average . However, Republicans hold what I believe to be a substantial electoral advantage.
Given the fact that the Democrats are defending 10 seats and Republicans are defending just three, the Democratic party is – and will be – forced to allocate money to many more races than Republicans. As of April, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main fundraising entity for Senate Republicans, had raised over $102 million, surpassing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s $94 million. Put another way, all Republicans have to do is flip one of the Democrat’s 10 seats in order to take control of Congress’ upper chamber.
And with fundraising advantages and wealthier GOP candidates financing their own campaigns, Democrats are at a distinct disadvantage. To be sure, Republicans still must defend the three seats in which they have an incumbent running for reelection — Texas , Florida , and Missouri — but as it currently stands, Republicans lead Democrats by an average of 11 points across those three races. In other words, these seats are pretty safe barring any major changes to the .
