“While Washington continues to debate its Ukraine policy, everyone can be relieved that no side has employed any nuclear weapons yet.” When the United States and its partners intervened after Russia’s full-scale invasion, there were serious and well-reasoned concerns about the extent to which the conflict could escalate. These worst-case scenarios never unfolded partly because the United States and its partners calibrated their intervention, rejecting proposals like a no-fly zone that could have brought the U.
S. and coalition militaries into direct contact with Russian forces. This proxy warfare strategy helped the United States manage escalation in a similar fashion to various proxy conflicts throughout the Cold War.
In contrast to this indirect defense of Ukraine, President Joe Biden has repeatedly threatened to defend Taiwan directly with U.S. forces .
A direct conflict with a nuclear-armed great power like China would push the United States into untested waters that it managed to avoid during the Cold War and create escalation risks comparable to worst-case fears about the war in Ukraine. The protracted conflict in Ukraine should serve as a stark reminder that wars are easier to start than to end and that fighting a nuclear-armed great power requires a fundamentally different mindset than what the United States and its allies became accustomed to over the past three decades. The United States should enter any conflict with a nuclear-armed great power like China with.
