(Bloomberg) -- Climate change in Britain is delivering more rainy and extreme weather, turning a national stereotype into a headache for economists trying to predict retail and growth data. Most Read from Bloomberg The UK had the wettest spring since 1986 and some of the most rainy months since 1836. A recent study found a global rise in temperatures made storm rainfall over this past winter about 20% worse, damaging crops, causing power cuts and flooding about 7,000 homes and businesses.
That’s made rain a constant feature of recent UK economic releases. Heavy downpours played a part in last year’s recession, when one of the most rainy Octobers on record dragged down construction, retail, pubs and tourism. Retail sales data in particular are becoming “exceptionally choppy,” according to Edward Allenby, UK economist at Oxford Economics, with shoppers swinging from rebound to restraint in gloomier months when rain makes people reluctant to visit high streets.
“The unusually warm but wet weather in February to April this year has likely contributed to volatility in retail figures,” said Tera Allas, director of research and economics at McKinsey in the UK. “It is possible that the narrative is more focused on weather than it has been historically.” The issue will come into focus on June 12, when the Office for National Statistics released gross domestic product data for April and then again on June 21 with retail sales figures.
Analysts expect a sharp slowdown to.