From the July/August 2024 issue of Apollo. Preview and subscribe here . I n March this year the annual art market report carried out by Arts Economics for UBS and Art Basel featured an article by lawyers Till Vere-Hodge and Katalin Andreides entitled ‘Navigating a Sea of Instability’.
And indeed, it looks very much as if the art market, already rocked by a decline in sales, is facing more turbulence as the year progresses. Yet just a year ago, the mood tended towards optimism. In the 2023 UBS-Art Basel report, Vere-Hodge and Andreides were upbeat, writing that ‘Following recent upheavals, the international art trade [.
..] will be glad to hear the coming year is predicted to be an auspicious one.
’ Sadly, they were too optimistic. Since they wrote those words, the world has seen increased turbulence, disrupting everything from supply chains to alliances. As well as the obvious issues – the geopolitical situation includes conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, looming elections and the political uncertainty that stems from those – there is ongoing tension in the South China Sea.
Then there are the complications due to sanctions against Russia, which have an impact on the art trade. One auction house employee pointed out to me that it can be very difficult to verify that the vendor of an item, whether it’s a painting or a watch, is not under sanctions, since the owner may be hiding behind a figurehead. In just one example, a recent case in the Unit.