Source: Gibson Shipbrokers “According to OPEC’s monthly forecast, global oil demand is projected to grow by 2.2 mbd this year. The analysts attribute the increase to robust demand growth in non-OECD countries, where consumption is projected to rise by 1.
98 mbd. The lion’s share of demand gain is coming from China, with an annual increase at 0.71 mbd.
Strong growth is also seen in India, other non-OECD Asia, Middle East and Latin America. Assuming OPEC’s demand projections materialize, member states need to boost their production in order to meet the expected level of demand”, the shipbroker said. Gibson added that “however, not many oil analysts are as bullish about growth prospects for oil demand.
For example, the IEA’s demand prediction for this year is much lower, at 1.1 mbd, amounting to half of the OPEC’s level. The agency believes that post-Covid surge in demand led to over 2 mbd growth in consumption both in 2022 and 2023, but demand will grow at a slower pace this year as post-Covid boost has run its course.
Total OECD demand is expected to dip by 140 kbd, almost entirely due to declining oil demand in Europe. According to the IEA, the industrial downturn and a mild winter has undermined gasoil demand in all three OECD regions during Q1 2024, with deliveries down by 330 kbd YoY. Non-OECD demand is expected to increase by 1.
2 mbd, with China accounting for over 40% of total non-OECD growth”. According to the shipbroker, “on the supply side, non-OPEC.