Source: Gibson Shipbrokers According to Gibson, “Iran’s true level of crude exports is nearly impossible to identify given the opaque and clandestine shipping practices used. However, AIS data shows a sustained rise in exports since 2020 from 390 kbd to 1.5 mbd as of this year, with some barrels likely still missing.
The vast majority of Iranian crude is transhipped via STS off Malaysia to China. The impact being, Malaysia on paper is exporting more crude than it produces”. “With export volumes growing, Iran has been able to ramp up crude production despite sanctions on its upstream oil sector, with the IEA estimating current production in the region of 3.
3 mbd (versus 2.4 mbd in 2021), which would support the view that Iranian crude exports could be higher than what is tracked even considering domestic consumption”, the shipbroker said. Gibson noted that “for the tanker sector, an increase in sanctions enforcement on the shipment of Iranian oil would in theory make this trade more difficult.
However, it remains to be seen how much impact this will really have, given the time this parallel market has had to develop and become resistant to existing sanctions. Gibson’s vessel database indicates at least 90 VLCCs are dedicated to servicing Iranian exports (including the NITC fleet), representing approximately 10% of the global VLCC fleet. For the Suezmax sector, there are at least 34 vessels involved or 5% of the fleet.
However, as mentioned with the case of estima.