Farage wants to be distinguished against the establishment (Image: Getty) Historians have two main schools of thought about why things turned out the way they did in any given era. One stresses how social and economic trends, including technological developments, made certain outcomes inevitable. The other focuses on the intervention of key charismatic individuals.
This latter approach is known as the “great man” theory of history and has fallen out of fashion in the modern era. When the story of the 2024 British general election is written up, the theory of trends will no doubt guide many authors: the huge migratory flows of the modern era setting off public anxiety about cherished cultural values being under threat, the failure of the current version of capitalism to improve living standards for nigh-on two decades, the interconnectedness of the modern world spreading a catastrophic pandemic at lightning quick pace. All these have counted against incumbents in recent elections across the free world.
And they are counting against the Conservative party in Britain right now. But great man theory will also have something to say about the way we cast our votes on July 4. Because all the evidence suggests that the unexpected intervention of one individual has been a game-changer.
That person is, of course, Nigel Farage . Since he performed a U-turn and leapt back into the electoral fray, taking over the leadership of the Reform party, the course of the contest has been alter.