It’s the Friday before the Tony Awards. Voting closed at noon today. Time to predict some winners.

In a very unsettled season, there are a number of close races, including some big ones, which means there could be plenty of surprises during the night itself. And below, we’ve correctly predicted them all. (Post-ceremony fact check not necessary.

) We’ll see you all Sunday. Best Musical Hell’s Kitchen Illinoise The Outsiders Suffs Water for Elephants The closest race of the night. You could make an argument for each show here, though some productions have edged ahead of others over the course of campaigning: Hell’s Kitchen and The Outsiders are proving themselves as commercial hits; Suffs has become the critical fave; Illinoise is the edgier pick; and Water for Elephants is clinging to that New York Times critics’ pick (also, it has acrobats).

Personally, I’d lean Suffs as the most well-made original thing of this crop, but the electric belting and star power of Alicia Keys campaigning hard feels like it’s pushing things in another direction. Will win: Hell’s Kitchen Best Revival of a Musical Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club Gutenberg! The Musical Merrily We Roll Along The Who’s Tommy Merrily turned a famous flop into a surefire genuine walk-away blockbuster, lines down to Broadway, boffola sensational, box-office lalapalooza . Cabaret is selling, but it’s never gonna get past those reviews.

The Who’s Tommy is happy to have a chance to perform on TV. (And I’.