According to Intermodal’s Research Analyst, Ms. Chara Georgousi, “as of mid-2024, the crude oil market has demonstrated significant volatility, influenced by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating supply dynamics. In Q1, Brent crude oil prices averaged $82/bbl, supported by OPEC+ production cuts and robust demand from emerging Asian markets.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caused temporary supply disruptions, spiking prices close to $90/bbl by late March. Increased production from the US and Brazil kept prices rangebound by April, amid strong demand from transportation and aviation sectors as global travel recovered”. Source: Intermodal The shipbroker added that “the sentiment for oil prices during the remainder of 2024 appears mixed, according to analysis from various sources.
Citi expects Brent to fall to $74/bbl in Q3 due to looser fundamentals and easing geopolitical risk premiums. However, potential OPEC+ cuts and slower non-OPEC supply growth could maintain market balance. The IEA projects Brent to average around $77/bbl in the 2H of 2024, while Goldman Sachs forecasts a slightly higher average of $80/bbl due to potential supply disruptions and stronger-than-expected demand recovery”.
“Meanwhile, on the demand side, growth projections for 2024 vary significantly between major organizations. The IEA has trimmed its forecast, now expecting global oil demand to grow by 1.1 mbpd, largely citing weak demand in developed OECD nations.
This contrasts with O.