The question of how Russia’s foreign policy will be managed during President Vladimir Putin’s new term seems redundant, if not irrelevant. The head of state is a man who has led the country in one form or another for almost a quarter of a century. He is known for his conservatism – not only in the ideological sense, but also in his aversion to sharp turns.
Moreover, Russia is engaged in an intensive military campaign against an international coalition, and there is little point in making plans until it is over, and while its prospects are still unclear. The successful completion of this campaign remains a task of incomparable importance. Nevertheless, it is necessary to reflect on this issue.
Firstly, all of the terms of Vladimir Putin’s presidency, while showing a continuity of approach, have been markedly different. Secondly, while the importance of achieving the goals of the military operation is undeniable, victory alone will not miraculously provide answers to all foreign policy challenges. Finally, the world system is changing rapidly for objective reasons, and Moscow will have to respond in any case.
The Ukraine conflict marked a turning point for Russia’s international position. The period of compensatory recovery (in stock market terms, it can be called a ‘rebound’), which had been the main feature of the previous two decades, was over. After the extremely difficult 1990s, when it was necessary just to stay among the leading players, since the beginning.