The future of the Conservative party leadership could be heavily dependent on the result of next week's general election – with a number of contenders to replace Rishi Sunak likely to lose key Commons allies, according to i analysis. Possible leadership candidates including Kemi Badenoch, Priti Patel and Tom Tugendhat may be left without their existing supporters if current polling proves accurate. Active maneouvring for the leadership is understood to be largely on hold during the general election, despite the expectation in Westminster that Rishi Sunak will resign if the forecast from opinion polls of a heavy Conservative defeat comes true on 4 July.
"No one knows who's going to survive," one MP told i . There is also uncertainty over how long any leadership election would take – previous Tory contests after a general election defeat have varied from three to six months – and whether it would use the same rules as before, which see MPs vote to choose a shortlist of two candidates, with party members having the final say between them." Most of those who are tipped to stand for the leadership this time also ran in 2022, when Liz Truss defeated Mr Sunak, or considered a run before deciding against it.
Research by i has identified half a dozen of the earliest backers of Ms Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Mr Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt and Ms Patel and examined whether they are likely to keep their seat in Parliament, according to the in-depth MRP polls published in recent weeks.