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, University of Miami From ominous and unsettling to daunting and dire, meteorologists have no shortage of adjectives to describe what the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has in store. In their most aggressive outlook ever, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting an above-average season of between 17 and 25 named storms, with eight to 13 becoming hurricanes, including four to seven major cyclones. Forecasters are 70% confident in those ranges.
It is "a perfect storm" of near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, and reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear that could make this hurricane season the most active of all time, said Ben Kirtman, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science. "We're seeing a shift in climate patterns in the Pacific. El Niño, which tends to increase vertical wind shear in the Atlantic and suppress some hurricane development, is ending," explained Kirtman, who is also the William R.
Middelthon III Endowed Chair of Earth Sciences. "We're transitioning to La Niña, which does the opposite, reducing the vert.