SINGAPORE: The Philippines’ latest move to formally confirm the legal outer limits of its continental shelf in the disputed South China Sea has raised eyebrows as it has not only expectedly angered China but also even sparked concerns from Malaysia and Vietnam. But analysts believe any blowback from fellow Southeast Asian nations is unlikely to escalate beyond stern words into punitive measures. They say Manila would have already factored in its neighbours’ reactions when taking the step at the United Nations (UN) last month, as they note that its move is aimed at consolidating the country’s maritime interests amid heightened tensions in the contested waterway, particularly with China.
The Philippines also likely chose to act now after working on the submission for more than 15 years as the situation is “opportune”, said Dr Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “The current domestic climate makes it easier to push for new legislation ..
. (also) this is probably one Philippine answer to what the Chinese are doing,” he told CNA. But at the same time, Manila’s move presents challenges to its long-standing ally the United States, which has been jostling with China for regional influence.
If not handled properly, the choppy geopolitical waters in the contested seaway could boil over into conflict, analysts warn, especially with an increasingly assertive Beijing. “The last thing they want is for something big.