Happy birthday, “Barbie” — you left big Birkenstocks to fill. “Twisters” (Universal) opens this weekend, the one-year anniversary of Greta Gerwig’s blockbuster. It’s the sole new wide release on a July date that often sees the debut of top summer releases like “Oppenheimer,” the “Lion King” remake, “Dunkirk,” “The Dark Knight,” and “The Dark Knight Rises.
” It often sees the last big opening before schools start their return in August. However, director Lee Isaac Chung’s “ Twisters ” is not the last big opening of this season. Marvel’s “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Disney, July 26) opens the following week to an anticipated $150 million or more.
That’s more than the total box office anticipated for this weekend; at best, it will be less than half of the $311 million grossed on July 21-23, 2023. No one expects the “Twisters” opening to come close to that of the Marvel sequel — but “Twisters” projections of $40 million-$50 million seem unreasonably low. After analyzing multiple factors, including precedence and talks with industry sources, a more realistic guess looks like $60 million or higher.
Here are eight reasons why. The third weekend in July is not only a historically top-grossing date, but this year it comes in the middle of a box-office upswing. The bulk has come from animated titles, but last weekend’s “Longlegs” (Neon) was a pleasant surprise .
“Twisters” faces lower-than-average competition for this time o.