The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study forecasts a rise in global life expectancy by 2024-2050, driven by effective public health strategies and a shift in disease burden from communicable to non-communicable diseases, with a focus on reducing disparities and addressing metabolic and lifestyle-related risks. The most recent results from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, recently published in The Lancet , predict a rise in global life expectancy of 4.9 years for males and 4.
2 years for females from 2022 to 2050. Increases are expected to be largest in countries where life expectancy is lower, contributing to a convergence of increased life expectancy across geographies. The trend is largely driven by public health measures that have prevented and improved survival rates from cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19 , and a range of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs).
This study indicates that the ongoing shift in disease burden to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) – like cardiovascular diseases, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and diabetes – and exposure to NCD-associated risk factors – such as obesity, high blood pressure, non-optimal diet, and smoking – will have the greatest impact on disease burden of the next generation. As the disease burden continues to shift from CMNNs to NCDs and from years of life lost (YLLs) to years lived with disability (YLDs), more people are expected to live longer, but with more years.
